Analyzing the 2025 Travel Predictions

What You Think vs. What You Want

The results are in from your votes to the survey on my 21 Ridiculously Specific Travel Tech Predictions for 2025. They show an interesting tension between what the industry expects to happen and what it hopes will happen. It is striking how different the 'likely' and 'want' lists are. Here are the key insights:

1. The top predictions for what will happen (Asian OTA acquisition, cruise residences, India/SE Asia funding) barely register on the 'want' list.

2. Meanwhile, some of the most desired changes (empathy pricing, inverse bidding in corporate travel, memorable insurance) are seen as least likely to happen.

3. The 'tourist-free zones' prediction is an exception. It ranks high on both lists (33% likely, 39% want), suggesting industry alignment around the need to address over-tourism. This is the only prediction that scored >30% on both lists, indicating it might be an idea whose time has come.

4. While 31% believe AI will replace traditional customer service, only 13% want this to happen. This suggests a resignation about AI's inevitability rather than enthusiasm for it.

5. The predictions about Asian companies (acquisition, funding) rank highest for likelihood but lowest for desirability. Is the industry preparing for, rather than embracing, a shift in power eastward?

6. The most desired changes tend to be human-centric (empathy pricing, travel advisors, experience categories) while the most expected changes are structural or technological (AI, acquisitions, funding shifts).

What This Tells Us:

→ The industry expects consolidation and technological disruption but desires innovation in human experience and value creation.

→ There's a clear appetite for addressing over-tourism