Travel Tech Essentialist #131: Fiction to Reality
Travel Tech Essentialist #131: Fiction to Reality
Science fiction is a goldmine for startup ideas. In this edition, you will access 180 sci-fi travel ideas, 29% of which are now reality. The other 71% are waiting for someone to bring them to life. Also in today’s newsletter: key metrics for founder salaries, luxury market evolution, how AI might bring us back to "real life," and the tailwinds for businesses targeting older travelers. And if this weren’t enough, you’ll also get to see a dictator in tears.
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0. The most clicked link in the previous newsletter
The most clicked link in Travel Tech Essentialist #130 was the launch of my new Travel Tech Jobs newsletter (🙏)
1. What do these events have in common?
- The launch of Netscape Navigator in 1994
- The launch of Google Adwords in 2000
- The September 11 terrorist attacks in 2001
- The SARS outbreak in 2003
- Facebook's debut in 2004
- The Eyjafjallajökull volcano eruption in 2010
- The global pandemic + lockdowns in 2020
- The emergence of ChatGPT in 2022
Each of these events dramatically reshaped the travel industry - some for a few months, others forever. And notably, none were included in any 'top 10 predictions' the preceding year (because they couldn’t be predicted).
History is the study of surprising events. Prediction is using historical data to forecast what events will happen next. Do you see the irony? — Morgan Housel
This serves as a reminder of how much (or little) value and attention to place on the 2024 travel predictions that will soon flood our inboxes.
2. Sci-fi travel innovation: Travel & Hospitality Sci-Fi Idea Bank
But if we want travel predictions, we should focus on Science Fiction to increase our odds of success. Ideas for new technologies and products almost always appear in sci-fi before they appear in real life because current technological and practical limitations do not constrain sci-fi authors.
It’s hard to find an example of a tech company whose product didn’t appear in sci-fi first. When a sci-fi writer comes up with an idea, it floats around in latent space, waiting to be pulled down when the necessary underlying technologies finally exist and hit their sweet spot on the cost and performance curves. When the time is right, an inventor or entrepreneur grabs it and tries to wrestle it into the real world. Viewed another way, sci-fi is a goldmine of ideas for startups. — Packy McCormick
Packy McCormick built a Sci-Fi Idea Bank, a spreadsheet of 3,567 sci-fi ideas pulled from Technovelgy.
Based on Packy's data, I created a Travel & Hospitality Sci-Fi Idea Bank, including whether the ideas have been built yet, and if so, when, by whom, and what the product is, plus some additional notes and whether they’re digital concepts ('bits') or mainly bits or physical objects ('atoms'). Here are some stats: out of 180 sci-fi ideas related to travel, transportation, and hospitality, 29% have become a reality. Ideas involving 'atoms' were more likely to materialize (31%) than 'bits' at 26%.
Here are a few examples of sci-fi dreams turned reality:
A flying machine capable of vertical take-off and landing, imagined in 1893 by George Griffith in The Angel of the Revolution. VTOL aircrafts came to life in the 1950s.
Electric Phaetons, vehicles whose motive power is entirely derived from electricity. Envisioned in 1894 by John Jacob Astor in A Journey In Other Worlds. The first viable electric cars came to life a few years later.
A self-service hotel that did not use clerks to take reservations, described in 1941 by Robert Heinlein in Methuselah's Children. Online bookings came to life in the 1990’s.
Automated Travel Bureau was a computer program allowing individuals to book their own travel arrangements with a credit card. Featured in 1982 by Robert Heinlein in Friday. Online bookings came to life in the 1990’s.
Cartograph, a device that shows you a record of your travels, predicted in 1936 by Jack Williamson in The Cometeers. GPS came to life in the mid 70’s.
And more importantly, look into at ideas yet to come to life - one of them might ignite your next big travel innovation. Access the Travel & Hospitality Sci-Fi Idea Bank.
3. How much should you be paying yourself?
Investors have good aggregate data about how much founders pay themselves, but founders don’t. Pilot (financial services for startups) launched the first Founder Salary Report in 2021 to answer this question and bring some clarity to founders. The Founder Salary Report 2023 is based on responses from nearly 750 startup founders (50% of whom were from NYC or the San Francisco Bay Area). The report also includes deep-dive salary analyses on remote startups and those in the SF and NYC areas.
4. Startup CEO and Founder Salary
Here is another salary report, but this one is based on actual payroll data (not surveys, which can be biased). Kruze Consulting published the 2023 edition of the Startup CEO Salary Report, now in its 6th year, based on payroll data for over 400 VC-backed startups. The companies in this study have collectively raised over $5 billion in seed and venture funding. The report includes a calculator that shows you an estimated compensation range for a startup CEO based on the amount of funding the company has raised, how recently the funding was raised, the stage of the company, and the company’s industry. Most early-stage, non-CEO founders are often paid about the same amount as the CEOs, so founders can also use this to estimate compensation.
5. AI's growth could lead us back to the real world and travel more
Regretful Accelerationism is an insightful article by Ben Thompson (Stratetchery) in which he suggests that the rise of AI and personalized online content will make us place greater value on authenticity and real-world experiences and interactions. Positive implications for corporate and leisure travel.
The Internet stripped away the constraint of physical distribution, and now AI is removing the constraint of needing to produce content. That this is spoiling the Internet is perhaps the best hope for finding our way back to what is real. Let the virtual world be one of customized content for every individual, with the assumption it is all made-up; some may lose themselves to the algorithm and AI friends, but perhaps more will realize that the only way to survive online is to pay it increasingly little heed. — Ben Thompson
6. Luxury hospitality's shift towards authentic experiences
The luxury market is evolving, and younger consumers are increasingly influencing its direction. In 2021, the luxury industry hit €1.15 trillion in sales and grew by 20% in 2022. Luxury cars, luxury hospitality, and personal luxury goods account for 80% of the total luxury market, with the remaining 20% going to fine wine, fine art, private jets, yachts, etc… (source: Bain & Company). Millennials and Gen Z will constitute 80% of the global luxury goods market by 2030 (source: Bain & Company), and they consistently value authentic luxury experiences over ownership of luxury goods. The implications of these generational shifts point to travel occupying an increased share of the luxury market. This article by Ecole Hôtelière de Lausanne dives into the world of luxury hospitality, exploring its trends, challenges, and best practices.
7. The ultimate luxury loyalty program isn’t a proper loyalty program
Echoing the trend towards experiential luxury, high-end fashion brands are adapting their approach to luxury and loyalty. Recognizing the shift towards unique, travel-related experiences, brands like Bulgari treat its top customers to first-class trips to Capri to enjoy exclusive events and celebrity interactions. Similarly, Hermes is redefining the concept of high-end loyalty programs without really having one. Read + about Hermes’ loyalty approach.
8. The power of US Boomers and GenX
Don't retire GenX and Boomers just yet from your luxury travel radar. Older Americans hold most of the country’s wealth, but they also are the fastest-growing age demographic regarding their percentage of the economy’s spending. A few data points:
Americans age 50 and older hold 83% of the wealth and 56% of consumer spending (Source: Chip Conley).
Americans age 70 and older hold nearly 26% of household wealth, the highest since records began in 1989 and up from 21% in 2010 (source: WSJ).
80% of spending on luxury leisure travel comes from those 55 and older (Source: Chip Conley).
Americans aged 65 and above account for 22% of spending, the highest share since records began in 1972 and up from 15% in 2010 (source: WSJ).
9. Travel's upcoming silver wave
This population distribution chart predicts a significant increase in the elderly population in the coming years. The growth in the population over 65 years old stands out in contrast with other age groups, which are expected to decrease or, at most, stay flat. This opens great opportunities for travel businesses catering to this growing demographic. They will enjoy immense tailwinds, with a target customer base growing organically from 750 million today to 1.5 -1.7 billion in the next 20-30 years.
So dire is the world’s falling birth rate that even dictators are crying on stage about it. Last week in North Korea, state media aired footage of Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un wiping away tears while discussing the nation's falling birth rates.
10. Chase Travel’s Luxury Offering
Chase offered a preview of its luxury lodging offering – now known as The Edit by Chase Travel – which will launch in early 2024. Chase Travel reported a 40% year-over-year increase in luxury hotel bookings, a 28% increase in business-class ticket bookings, and a 14% increase in first-class ticket bookings. Read + The Points Guy.
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Mauricio Prieto